JSIT23-02: Violent Victimization, Lost Earnings, and Implications for Social Security Trust Funds and Social Security Earnings-Based Tax Revenue

Researchers

Abstract

Solvency of Social Security trust funds is essential for the continued financing of federal programs administered by the Social Security Administration (SSA). These programs operate on a pay-as-you-go model where a federal payroll tax instituted under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) allocates a percentage of gross wages to finance current and future SSA programming. Benefits of current beneficiaries are paid and the remaining balance is invested in program-specific trust funds to finance future benefits. This research centers the earnings-based contributions that fund SSA programs and SSA trust funds and a social process that may be consequential for program revenue.

This analysis investigates productivity interruptions as a potential link connecting victimization experience and the reinforcement of social inequality. Results show that violent crime leads to significantly higher odds of productivity interruptions than property crimes. Similarly, victimization incidents involving firearms or hand weapons are significantly more likely to result in productivity interruptions than unarmed offenses. Victimization processes reinforce inequality through higher odds of productivity interruptions for marginalized or less advantaged segments of the population along dimensions of sex, race/ethnicity, education, and income. Thirty years of data from the National Crime Victimization Survey show consistent losses of work time for victims and members of their households, which lower the base of federally taxable earnings that supports SSA trust funds. Also, reports of problems with work or school tripled from 2008 to 2022 suggesting a growing educational cost of victimization that could have long-term earnings implications.

Publications

Project Year

2023